Pheu Thai’s by-election win strengthens coalition’s unity

The ruling Pheu Thai Party’s victory in the Phitsanulok by-election on Sept 15 signals that the coalition parties led by Pheu Thai will continue to collaborate and unite against the opposition People’s Party (PP) in the next general election, according to political observers.
Pheu Thai’s candidate, Jadet Jantar, defeated his only opponent, Nathachanon Chanaburanasak of the PP, in a fiercely contested race in Phitsanulok’s Constituency 1.
The PP had campaigned vigorously, mobilising key party figures to assist with electioneering in hopes of reclaiming the seat previously held by Padipat Santipada.
Mr Padipat had won the seat in Constituency 1 in last year’s general election but lost it after the Constitutional Court ruled on Aug 7 to dissolve the Move Forward Party (MFP), the PP’s predecessor.
The court banned 11 executive members, including Mr Padipat, from politics for 10 years on national security grounds, saying the party posed a threat to the constitutional monarchy.
Mr Padipat had served on the MFP board before his disqualification.
According to the by-election results on Sunday, Mr Jadet received 37,209 votes, defeating Mr Nathachanon’s 30,640 votes.
Voter turnout was 54% of the 138,705 eligible voters, with 67,849 valid ballots cast and 1,108 spoiled ballots.
Prime Minister and Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra hailed the result as a positive signal for the government, saying it would provide her with moral strength.
Pheu Thai stalwarts described the victory as politically significant, noting it was the party’s first win in Phitsanulok’s Constituency 1 in 20 years.
This was also a theme which Deputy Prime Minister and deputy Pheu Thai leader Somsak Thepsutin emphasised. The victory will give a major morale boost to the newly formed government and Ms Paetongtarn.
Phitsanulok’s Constituency 1 was long a political stronghold of the Democrat Party before the MFP won the seat in the last election.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told the Bangkok Post that several factors contributed to the PP’s defeat in the by-election.
One factor was that advance voting and voting outside electoral constituencies were not allowed, he said.
This affected the PP’s young supporters, many of whom had moved away from their home provinces for work and did not have the opportunity to return home to vote, he said.
Mr Stithorn also noted the by-election attracted little interest compared to a general election, which pulls more attention due to its significance in determining which party forms the government and who becomes prime minister.
“Voters in the by-election were mostly residents who support politicians from local political clans,” he said.
He added the PP also bore responsibility for its loss because neither the party nor its candidate did enough to motivate voters to go to the polls, and the candidate failed to capture the voters’ interest.
Additionally, a PP MP’s criticism of the military during the campaign backfired, Mr Stithorn said, referring to Chetawan Thuaprakhon, a PP MP for Pathum Thani, who supported the by-election candidate’s campaign.
During the campaign, Mr Chetawan said the Ekathossarot military base in Phitsanulok should be turned into a garbage dump, which sparked outrage among residents.
“They should have communicated constructively and explained how they would work for the local people. Remarks like that offended the community,” Mr Stithorn said.
He also noted that Pheu Thai had the support of all coalition parties, which did not field candidates in the by-election, allowing the Pheu Thai candidate to run without contest by other coalition members. Some coalition parties even aided Pheu Thai in the campaign.
As a result, some of the votes for Pheu Thai’s candidate were likely from supporters of coalition allies such as Bhumjaithai and the Palang Pracharath Party faction led by Capt Thamanat Prompow.
Mr Stithorn suggested that Pheu Thai’s victory in the by-election might foreshadow the 2027 general election result.
He believed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, widely regarded as Pheu Thai’s de facto leader, would act as a power broker to ensure the coalition parties unite against the PP in the next poll.
“In the next election, Pheu Thai and its coalition allies, supported by local political clans, will face off against the PP.
“The competition in each constituency is expected to be close. Thaksin will likely act as a coordinator in this fight against the PP,” Mr Stithorn said.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University in Chon Buri, agreed that Pheu Thai’s victory was partly due to coalition parties not fielding candidates in the race.
Had they done so, they would have split the vote among themselves, making it difficult to defeat the PP, he said.
“There was only one Pheu Thai candidate, fully supported by local political clans,” Mr Olarn said.
He said Pheu Thai-led government also controls state mechanisms, which gave the ruling party an advantage in the by-election.
Furthermore, the PP’s candidate lacked recognition and had to rely on more prominent party figures during the campaign, Mr Olarn noted.
He said the PP should also soften its uncompromising stance and shift its focus away from sensitive issues, such as amending the lese majeste law, towards policies that address the needs of local communities in each region.
“The PP, which is a reincarnation of the MFP, refuses to compromise with others.
They also challenge local political leaders, which is why local political clans cannot allow the PP to have its way.
“They unite against the PP, with Thaksin believed to be acting as a coordinator behind the scenes,” Mr Olarn said.
“In the next election, the coalition parties led by Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai are expected to remain united to ensure they return to power,” he added.
Mr Padipat, the former MP for Phitsanulok, said the party’s defeat in the by-election was partly due to the absence of advance voting.
As a result, about 20% — almost 10,000 of the eligible voters — did not cast their votes.
He also noted Pheu Thai’s sole candidate, lacking rivals from coalition allies, had an advantage from the outset, while state mechanisms and the influence of local politicians also contributed to Pheu Thai’s victory.
Mr Padipat mentioned that the PP struggled to attract enough voters in the farming areas on the outskirts of Constituency 1 and failed to persuade voters working in other provinces to return home and vote.
He believed Pheu Thai would use the same strategies that secured its by-election victory in the next general election.
Mr Padipat added that major local political clans played a key role in the by-election.
“But substantial financial resources will be required if they want to secure a similar victory.
“It is unlikely they will be able to win in all 400 constituencies in the next election.
“We will also have to work hard to improve.
“The by-election loss has exposed our weaknesses. If we continue to fight in the same old way, we will end up losing again,” Mr Padipat said.
Nopphon Luangthongnara, a Pheu Thai MP for Phitsanulok, praised the cooperation between Pheu Thai and its coalition partners in the by-election.
“Each party tried to choose its best candidate.
“However, the candidate from Pheu Thai may have proven to be better, so they decided to step aside,” he said.
He also added that in the next general election in 2027, this approach may serve as a recipe for success in some constituencies, if not all 400 of the constituencies across the kingdom.
Mr Nopphon also mentioned the influence of local political clans and the patronage system remain entrenched in Thai politics and was likely to have contributed to PP’s loss in the by-election.
While coalition parties led by Pheu Thai maintain ties with these clans, the PP seems to give them a snub, he said.